The Bandits' Bullpen vs Starting Pitching.

I've noticed, and I've heard it commented, that the Bandits' bullpen has been having a strong year. Certainly on face value this assertion seems to be valid - Erasmus, Jarrett, Lamb, Durket, Mowday, Marck, and others, have all strung together multiple solid outing of relief pitching. I thought I would take a closer look at the numbers to see what patterns emerge.

So far this season, fourteen pitchers have appeared for the Bandits. Only two of these have been used exclusively as starters (Yanagawa and Maestri - though note that I'm classifying Maestri's takeover of the recent postponed game as a start), eight have appeared exclusively as releivers, and four have spent time in both roles (for these, I split their stats based on role). After compiling the numbers based on pitching role (SP - starting pitcher, RP - relief pitcher), the following numbers emerge:

Role	IP	ERA	H/9IP	BB/9IP	SO/9IP	HR/9IP	WHIP
SP	82.2	4.89	8.49	4.03	8.49	0.87	1.39
RP	62	2.90	6.82	3.92	5.81	0.44	1.19

I used rate based statistics (e.g. per nine innings) to allow a subjective comparison to be made. While the ERA values are markedly different, starting pitchers have had similar walk rates and better srikeout rates than relievers. The key difference seems to be a greater rate of hits allowed, and most importantly a doubling of the home run concession rate. The end result is that starting pitchers have allowed 2 more earned runs to be scored off of them every nine innings - a significant gap.

Firstly, it does appear that the Bandits' bullpen is very strong this year. There are a large number of very consistant performers who continue to have strong appearances.

Regarding the lackluster statistics of starting pitchers, this all comes down to an issue relating back to my last blog - the backend of the starting rotation is unsettled. Maestri and Yanagawa are locked in - no questions asked - and their individual numbers reflect this (Yanagawa does need to reduce his walk rate, though). Chambers has shown great promise, and I believe the Bandits will continue to give him a start each week. His control has been very good so far, and apart from one bad outing he's been very solid. They'll be wanting to let him settle into the role as a starter and will most likely benefit from strong performances. The issue is the remaining positions in the starting rotation - either 1 or 2 spots, depending on series length.

Looking at statistics only for games in which they were the starting pitcher: 

Player	IP	H/9IP	BB/9IP	BB/9IP	SO/9IP	HR/9IP	WHIP
Yanagawa	24.1	4.44	7.03	7.03	10.36	0.74	1.27
Maestri	23.1	7.72	2.31	2.31	8.49	0.77	1.11
Chambers	14.1	7.54	0.63	0.63	8.16	0.63	0.91
Morriss	17	13.24	4.24	4.24	7.41	1.59	1.94
Kilby	1.2	16.17	5.39	5.39	5.39	0.00	2.40
Marck	2	27.00	9.00	9.00	0.00	0.00	4.00

...and we can see the issue. As discussed previously, Morriss is having a rough season. I believe he's showing some signs of righting the ship - but as a part-time baseball player (he has his own business to run) and a fastly developing league, it seems to be coming progressively harder for him to keep up with the batters. I still feel he's best suited to middle relief, a role which will take some of the pressure off of him.

In my last blog, I predicted Marck would be given a start in the five-game series against Sydney - based on his great relief appearances. This turned out to be true, but he got blasted out of the game in only 2 innings. This is a real head scratcher for the Bandits. In 5.2 innings as a relief pitcher he has an impressive WHIP of 0.53, allowing only 1 hit and two walks. The Bandits really would have been hoping for him to carry at least some of this form into the starting role, helping to fill a vital gap (much as Chambers has).

Thus, the Bandits have two real options here.

1. The conservative approach - Start Morriss and leave Marck in the bullpen, where he has shown strong form.
2. The risky approach, but with a higher potential upside - Give Marck another chance to start, and hope he can begin to establish himself as a legitimate starting option.

I personally would prefer the second option. With Morriss starting the Bandits know exactly what they will get - at home Morriss will eat some innings, perform solidly, but gradually leak hits and runs. He'll likely keep the Bandits in the game, but a lot will come down to the bats. With Marck there is the risk he will repeat last week, but there is also the chance he could provide the answer to a long-term need. I personally think it's worth a second shot - one bad outing doesn't make a pitcher, and he's shown strong potential during his bullpen outings. It also wouldn't suprise me if the Bandits hedge their bets - start Marck, but keep Morriss ready to jump in should things turn sour.

The pitching lineup this week will look like:

Starters:
Yanagawa
Maestri
Chambers
Morriss/Marck

Bullpen:
Morriss/Marck
Mowday
Lamb
Erasmus
Durket
Jarrett
Thompson

This, I feel, is a very strong and well rounded roster. Even though our Bandits face the league leading Perth Heat this week, the RNA Showgrounds is a pitching friendly ballpark - and with a strong bullpen, and a starting rotation that will hopefully start settling, I definately wouldn't count them out.

Implications of a Five Game Series

This week the Bandits play a five game away series against the Sydney Blue Sox. Five game series are new to the ABL this year (scheduled ones, anyway - postponements necessitated their need last season, on occasion). This is due to the increase from 40 games per team per season (home and away four game series) to a new 45 game schedule. While I think it's unfair to have teams play an uneven number of home and away games both against eachother and overall (based on this blog on homeground advantage in the ABL), the five game series has additional implications.

The first of these obviously relates to pitching. With five games in four days, the pitching roster will be stretched. This season the Bandits have tried five starting pitchers - Maestri, Yanagawa, Chambers, Morriss, and Kilby. Five games, five pitchers - all good, right? Well Kilby only started during the first series, against Canberra, lasted 2.1 innings and hasn't appeared since (and is currently not on the active roster). This poses a problem. If the series were across five days, then potentially the opening game pitcher could close out the series on short rest. Given the clustered schedule, I think it's reasonably safe to assume that a different starting pitcher will be tossed the ball for each game.

The current active Bandits roster consists of 12 pitchers. If we assume Maestri, Yanagawa, Chambers, and Morriss all get starts (Morriss has a patchy recent past, but in a reasonable ballpark like Sydney he makes a solid option) - then we can expect a new starter to take the mound this weekend. Of the remaining, I think it's safe to straight away rule out Mowday, Erasmus, and Lamb. All three play classic reliever roles (usually very well) - and Erasmus is presumably restricted by a pitch count. This leaves Veitch, Baker, Durket, Jarrett, and Marck. Veitch is an experienced campainer, and started once last season, but his longest outing this season (3.1 innings of relief) was his worst. He has however performed well in shorter relief, and the Bandits will probably feel he's best suited for this role. Baker hasn't experienced the smoothest start to the season, so I'd tend to assume the same. So the decision comes down to either two pitchers who've shown promise as relievers (Marck, Durket) or a yet to debut Jarrett. Sean Jarrett is an interesting case - he's so far reached the AA level in the US, playing with the Tulsa Drillers, with a (mostly) good record as a reliever (he understandably takes a short while to adjust to each new level, but has pretty great numbers otherwise). The issue is that he's never started in the minors. Now, Yanagawa is a reliever/closer in Japan, so this isn't necessarily an impediment - but an issue to consider. This leaves Durket and Marck. Durket only started one game during his time with US indie-league team Lake Erie Crushers, but has shown promise since arriving in Australia and is more experienced than Marck. The New Zealander, Andrew Marck, is the wildcard. While having no stateside experience, he's consistently started for New Zealand in the past. This season Marck has only allowed 1 hit across 5.2 innings of relief. He's an exciting up and comer, but much more of an unknown. While my crystal ball is a bit foggy at the moment, I'm forecasting that Marck will be given the chance to start this series and Durket and Jarrett will shoulder some heavy relief work.

The next important implication has to do with the way things will stand at the end of the series. The Bandits are currently in (tied) second spot, with an even 6-6 record. To keep themselves comfortable for the playoffs, they'll probably be aiming to keep themselves even or better. Sydney are in last spot (5-11) but are by no means a bad team, and a bad series against Perth exaggerates their record. The fall of this series therefore is very important for the Bandits. A 3-2 or 4-1 series victory would be a great result (I'm assuming neither team will sweep the other). Yet it could come down to an error or stroke of luck to flip this the other way. The Bandits and Blue Sox will likely be in the tussle for spots 2-4 in the league this season, so these head-to-heads are highly important - especially when an odd-game series takes away the possibility a split (barring rain). Blacktown Ballpark plays quite similar to the Bandits own RNA Showgrounds, so thankfully this is likely going to come down to a test of skill and mettle. The Bandits hold the edge so far, after winning their home series against the Sox 3-1 - with great pitching performances. I'm predicting a 3-2 series win to the Bandits, but secretly hoping they can pinch a result to sneak that up another win.

Struggling Start - Can Morriss Rebound?

Following a strong home series against the Blue Sox, the Bandits fortunes reversed this weekend in Melbourne - going 1-3 for the weekend. While still in second place, thanks to the Perth Heat killing everyone in sight, it brings there overall record to a level 6-6. Simon Morriss was pinned with two of the recent losses, and four overall, putting him in the unenviable position of having two thirds of the teams losses against his name. I've noticed Simon has been copping heat in reaction to this, and thought I would take a closer look - and see if Mr Morriss can turn his season around.

First, let's have a look at his appearances so far this year:

Opp.	Role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
@Canberra	Starter	5.0	5	6	6	4	4
Sydney	Starter	4.0	7	4	2	2	4
@Melbourne	Closer	0.2	4	3	3	0	1
@Melbourne	Starter	4.0	7	5	5	0	5

Yep, rough start. After a closer look of the numbers, a few things stand out. Firstly, he's given up the most home runs of any Bandit (4). This equates to 2.63 home runs per 9 innings pitched, up from 1.58 last year. Secondly, he's leaking both hits and walks. This season, his WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) is up to 2.12 from 1.38 (as well as two hit batters). And finally - on a different note - his strikeout-to-walk ratio has improved from 1.61 to 2.33. So what to make of all this?

Those home runs hurt. In fact, extra-base hits hurt. The runs given up against Canberra came from two home runs and a double. Two against Sydney were from a double. He gave up a solo homer to blow the save against Melbourne, and added a pair of doubles to it in his next appearance. He's getting hit and getting hit hard - and it seems his style of pitching is poorly suited for the batter friendly stadiums highlighted in my last blog post.

One important factor is his Groundout to Flyout (or airout)  ratio (GO/AO). In a tiny ballpark like Melbourne, if you allow the batters to hit flyballs consistantly - eventually some of them are gonna clear the fence, or at least go for  extra base hits. When Chambers got blasted from the third game against Melbourne (after just two innings), he didn't induce a single groundout. Melbourne know how to take advantage of their ballparks dimensions (and so do Canberra, to a certain degree). So Morriss is getting hit, and getting hit in the wrong way. So are the other pitchers, but for Simon it is more pronounced.

Pitcher	Home GO/AO	Away GO/AO
Morriss	3.00	0.67
Maestri	7.00	2.86
Yanagawa	0.40	1.00
Chambers	3.33	0.29

Three of the starting pitchers have a very high proportion of groundouts at home, so far. For Yanagawa, the flyballs being him off him at home haven't mattered due to it's pitcher friendly nature (there is nothing at all wrong with a flyball pitcher - it only becomes a problem when the fences come a lot closer). The other numbers speak for themselves - those who can control the flyballs when away fair best - ala Maestri.

Morriss has a similar problem last year, at home his ERA was 2.65 - yet, overall it was 5.63. Whether he can adjust his approach on the road - with the ultimate aim to prevent home batters playing to the advantages the stadiums provide - remains to be seen. Simon is by no means a bad pitcher - he is a true battler and a local boy to boot - but he (like many pitchers in the league) needs to find a solution to the ballpark problem.