The Bandits' Bullpen vs Starting Pitching.

I've noticed, and I've heard it commented, that the Bandits' bullpen has been having a strong year. Certainly on face value this assertion seems to be valid - Erasmus, Jarrett, Lamb, Durket, Mowday, Marck, and others, have all strung together multiple solid outing of relief pitching. I thought I would take a closer look at the numbers to see what patterns emerge.

So far this season, fourteen pitchers have appeared for the Bandits. Only two of these have been used exclusively as starters (Yanagawa and Maestri - though note that I'm classifying Maestri's takeover of the recent postponed game as a start), eight have appeared exclusively as releivers, and four have spent time in both roles (for these, I split their stats based on role). After compiling the numbers based on pitching role (SP - starting pitcher, RP - relief pitcher), the following numbers emerge:

Role	IP	ERA	H/9IP	BB/9IP	SO/9IP	HR/9IP	WHIP
SP	82.2	4.89	8.49	4.03	8.49	0.87	1.39
RP	62	2.90	6.82	3.92	5.81	0.44	1.19

I used rate based statistics (e.g. per nine innings) to allow a subjective comparison to be made. While the ERA values are markedly different, starting pitchers have had similar walk rates and better srikeout rates than relievers. The key difference seems to be a greater rate of hits allowed, and most importantly a doubling of the home run concession rate. The end result is that starting pitchers have allowed 2 more earned runs to be scored off of them every nine innings - a significant gap.

Firstly, it does appear that the Bandits' bullpen is very strong this year. There are a large number of very consistant performers who continue to have strong appearances.

Regarding the lackluster statistics of starting pitchers, this all comes down to an issue relating back to my last blog - the backend of the starting rotation is unsettled. Maestri and Yanagawa are locked in - no questions asked - and their individual numbers reflect this (Yanagawa does need to reduce his walk rate, though). Chambers has shown great promise, and I believe the Bandits will continue to give him a start each week. His control has been very good so far, and apart from one bad outing he's been very solid. They'll be wanting to let him settle into the role as a starter and will most likely benefit from strong performances. The issue is the remaining positions in the starting rotation - either 1 or 2 spots, depending on series length.

Looking at statistics only for games in which they were the starting pitcher: 

Player	IP	H/9IP	BB/9IP	BB/9IP	SO/9IP	HR/9IP	WHIP
Yanagawa	24.1	4.44	7.03	7.03	10.36	0.74	1.27
Maestri	23.1	7.72	2.31	2.31	8.49	0.77	1.11
Chambers	14.1	7.54	0.63	0.63	8.16	0.63	0.91
Morriss	17	13.24	4.24	4.24	7.41	1.59	1.94
Kilby	1.2	16.17	5.39	5.39	5.39	0.00	2.40
Marck	2	27.00	9.00	9.00	0.00	0.00	4.00

...and we can see the issue. As discussed previously, Morriss is having a rough season. I believe he's showing some signs of righting the ship - but as a part-time baseball player (he has his own business to run) and a fastly developing league, it seems to be coming progressively harder for him to keep up with the batters. I still feel he's best suited to middle relief, a role which will take some of the pressure off of him.

In my last blog, I predicted Marck would be given a start in the five-game series against Sydney - based on his great relief appearances. This turned out to be true, but he got blasted out of the game in only 2 innings. This is a real head scratcher for the Bandits. In 5.2 innings as a relief pitcher he has an impressive WHIP of 0.53, allowing only 1 hit and two walks. The Bandits really would have been hoping for him to carry at least some of this form into the starting role, helping to fill a vital gap (much as Chambers has).

Thus, the Bandits have two real options here.

1. The conservative approach - Start Morriss and leave Marck in the bullpen, where he has shown strong form.
2. The risky approach, but with a higher potential upside - Give Marck another chance to start, and hope he can begin to establish himself as a legitimate starting option.

I personally would prefer the second option. With Morriss starting the Bandits know exactly what they will get - at home Morriss will eat some innings, perform solidly, but gradually leak hits and runs. He'll likely keep the Bandits in the game, but a lot will come down to the bats. With Marck there is the risk he will repeat last week, but there is also the chance he could provide the answer to a long-term need. I personally think it's worth a second shot - one bad outing doesn't make a pitcher, and he's shown strong potential during his bullpen outings. It also wouldn't suprise me if the Bandits hedge their bets - start Marck, but keep Morriss ready to jump in should things turn sour.

The pitching lineup this week will look like:

Starters:
Yanagawa
Maestri
Chambers
Morriss/Marck

Bullpen:
Morriss/Marck
Mowday
Lamb
Erasmus
Durket
Jarrett
Thompson

This, I feel, is a very strong and well rounded roster. Even though our Bandits face the league leading Perth Heat this week, the RNA Showgrounds is a pitching friendly ballpark - and with a strong bullpen, and a starting rotation that will hopefully start settling, I definately wouldn't count them out.

Struggling Start - Can Morriss Rebound?

Following a strong home series against the Blue Sox, the Bandits fortunes reversed this weekend in Melbourne - going 1-3 for the weekend. While still in second place, thanks to the Perth Heat killing everyone in sight, it brings there overall record to a level 6-6. Simon Morriss was pinned with two of the recent losses, and four overall, putting him in the unenviable position of having two thirds of the teams losses against his name. I've noticed Simon has been copping heat in reaction to this, and thought I would take a closer look - and see if Mr Morriss can turn his season around.

First, let's have a look at his appearances so far this year:

Opp.	Role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
@Canberra	Starter	5.0	5	6	6	4	4
Sydney	Starter	4.0	7	4	2	2	4
@Melbourne	Closer	0.2	4	3	3	0	1
@Melbourne	Starter	4.0	7	5	5	0	5

Yep, rough start. After a closer look of the numbers, a few things stand out. Firstly, he's given up the most home runs of any Bandit (4). This equates to 2.63 home runs per 9 innings pitched, up from 1.58 last year. Secondly, he's leaking both hits and walks. This season, his WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) is up to 2.12 from 1.38 (as well as two hit batters). And finally - on a different note - his strikeout-to-walk ratio has improved from 1.61 to 2.33. So what to make of all this?

Those home runs hurt. In fact, extra-base hits hurt. The runs given up against Canberra came from two home runs and a double. Two against Sydney were from a double. He gave up a solo homer to blow the save against Melbourne, and added a pair of doubles to it in his next appearance. He's getting hit and getting hit hard - and it seems his style of pitching is poorly suited for the batter friendly stadiums highlighted in my last blog post.

One important factor is his Groundout to Flyout (or airout)  ratio (GO/AO). In a tiny ballpark like Melbourne, if you allow the batters to hit flyballs consistantly - eventually some of them are gonna clear the fence, or at least go for  extra base hits. When Chambers got blasted from the third game against Melbourne (after just two innings), he didn't induce a single groundout. Melbourne know how to take advantage of their ballparks dimensions (and so do Canberra, to a certain degree). So Morriss is getting hit, and getting hit in the wrong way. So are the other pitchers, but for Simon it is more pronounced.

Pitcher	Home GO/AO	Away GO/AO
Morriss	3.00	0.67
Maestri	7.00	2.86
Yanagawa	0.40	1.00
Chambers	3.33	0.29

Three of the starting pitchers have a very high proportion of groundouts at home, so far. For Yanagawa, the flyballs being him off him at home haven't mattered due to it's pitcher friendly nature (there is nothing at all wrong with a flyball pitcher - it only becomes a problem when the fences come a lot closer). The other numbers speak for themselves - those who can control the flyballs when away fair best - ala Maestri.

Morriss has a similar problem last year, at home his ERA was 2.65 - yet, overall it was 5.63. Whether he can adjust his approach on the road - with the ultimate aim to prevent home batters playing to the advantages the stadiums provide - remains to be seen. Simon is by no means a bad pitcher - he is a true battler and a local boy to boot - but he (like many pitchers in the league) needs to find a solution to the ballpark problem.