The Bandits' Bullpen vs Starting Pitching.

I've noticed, and I've heard it commented, that the Bandits' bullpen has been having a strong year. Certainly on face value this assertion seems to be valid - Erasmus, Jarrett, Lamb, Durket, Mowday, Marck, and others, have all strung together multiple solid outing of relief pitching. I thought I would take a closer look at the numbers to see what patterns emerge.

So far this season, fourteen pitchers have appeared for the Bandits. Only two of these have been used exclusively as starters (Yanagawa and Maestri - though note that I'm classifying Maestri's takeover of the recent postponed game as a start), eight have appeared exclusively as releivers, and four have spent time in both roles (for these, I split their stats based on role). After compiling the numbers based on pitching role (SP - starting pitcher, RP - relief pitcher), the following numbers emerge:

Role	IP	ERA	H/9IP	BB/9IP	SO/9IP	HR/9IP	WHIP
SP	82.2	4.89	8.49	4.03	8.49	0.87	1.39
RP	62	2.90	6.82	3.92	5.81	0.44	1.19

I used rate based statistics (e.g. per nine innings) to allow a subjective comparison to be made. While the ERA values are markedly different, starting pitchers have had similar walk rates and better srikeout rates than relievers. The key difference seems to be a greater rate of hits allowed, and most importantly a doubling of the home run concession rate. The end result is that starting pitchers have allowed 2 more earned runs to be scored off of them every nine innings - a significant gap.

Firstly, it does appear that the Bandits' bullpen is very strong this year. There are a large number of very consistant performers who continue to have strong appearances.

Regarding the lackluster statistics of starting pitchers, this all comes down to an issue relating back to my last blog - the backend of the starting rotation is unsettled. Maestri and Yanagawa are locked in - no questions asked - and their individual numbers reflect this (Yanagawa does need to reduce his walk rate, though). Chambers has shown great promise, and I believe the Bandits will continue to give him a start each week. His control has been very good so far, and apart from one bad outing he's been very solid. They'll be wanting to let him settle into the role as a starter and will most likely benefit from strong performances. The issue is the remaining positions in the starting rotation - either 1 or 2 spots, depending on series length.

Looking at statistics only for games in which they were the starting pitcher: 

Player	IP	H/9IP	BB/9IP	BB/9IP	SO/9IP	HR/9IP	WHIP
Yanagawa	24.1	4.44	7.03	7.03	10.36	0.74	1.27
Maestri	23.1	7.72	2.31	2.31	8.49	0.77	1.11
Chambers	14.1	7.54	0.63	0.63	8.16	0.63	0.91
Morriss	17	13.24	4.24	4.24	7.41	1.59	1.94
Kilby	1.2	16.17	5.39	5.39	5.39	0.00	2.40
Marck	2	27.00	9.00	9.00	0.00	0.00	4.00

...and we can see the issue. As discussed previously, Morriss is having a rough season. I believe he's showing some signs of righting the ship - but as a part-time baseball player (he has his own business to run) and a fastly developing league, it seems to be coming progressively harder for him to keep up with the batters. I still feel he's best suited to middle relief, a role which will take some of the pressure off of him.

In my last blog, I predicted Marck would be given a start in the five-game series against Sydney - based on his great relief appearances. This turned out to be true, but he got blasted out of the game in only 2 innings. This is a real head scratcher for the Bandits. In 5.2 innings as a relief pitcher he has an impressive WHIP of 0.53, allowing only 1 hit and two walks. The Bandits really would have been hoping for him to carry at least some of this form into the starting role, helping to fill a vital gap (much as Chambers has).

Thus, the Bandits have two real options here.

1. The conservative approach - Start Morriss and leave Marck in the bullpen, where he has shown strong form.
2. The risky approach, but with a higher potential upside - Give Marck another chance to start, and hope he can begin to establish himself as a legitimate starting option.

I personally would prefer the second option. With Morriss starting the Bandits know exactly what they will get - at home Morriss will eat some innings, perform solidly, but gradually leak hits and runs. He'll likely keep the Bandits in the game, but a lot will come down to the bats. With Marck there is the risk he will repeat last week, but there is also the chance he could provide the answer to a long-term need. I personally think it's worth a second shot - one bad outing doesn't make a pitcher, and he's shown strong potential during his bullpen outings. It also wouldn't suprise me if the Bandits hedge their bets - start Marck, but keep Morriss ready to jump in should things turn sour.

The pitching lineup this week will look like:

Starters:
Yanagawa
Maestri
Chambers
Morriss/Marck

Bullpen:
Morriss/Marck
Mowday
Lamb
Erasmus
Durket
Jarrett
Thompson

This, I feel, is a very strong and well rounded roster. Even though our Bandits face the league leading Perth Heat this week, the RNA Showgrounds is a pitching friendly ballpark - and with a strong bullpen, and a starting rotation that will hopefully start settling, I definately wouldn't count them out.

Who the hell is Steven Chambers?

When an international journey-man like Alex Maestri pitches, you look forward to Ks. When SoftBank Hawks reliever Yohei Yanagawa, boasting a 1.88 ERA in Japan's NBP, decides to stretch himself out down under - you brace yourself for some fireworks. But when a Gold Coast born twenty-one year old takes the mound in the last game of the series - well, you don't expect anything.

Last year for the Bandits Chambers pitched four innings across three games for the Bandits - allowing 9 hits, 8 walks, and 6 runs. Not exactly heart-warming stuff.

In the forth and final game of this years opening series against Canberra, the Bandits - up 8-6 in the middle of the sixth - threw the ball to Chambers. He responded by sending back nine batters straight - 3 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 Ks. Three innings of work in 38 pitches, choking the Calvary offence in what up to that point had been a high scoring contest.

Presumably, he was rewarded for this impressive relief appearance by being given the start in the final game of the next series, this time against the formidable Sydney Blue Sox. His response? 6.1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 Ks. For those of you not familiar with baseball statistics - at this point in the season he has pitched nine and a third innings and allowed only two batters on base (one hit, one walk) and struck out seven - impressive results on any scale.

So where did this come from? Even Maestri allowed 5 hits and 2 walks in his much praised 10 K performance. It got me wondering - who the hell is Steven Chambers?

After some poking around the Australian Baseball Federation website, I found that although he made the 2011 Queensland U23 team - he only pitched one inning of relief in the tournament. Searching a little deeper, Chambers signed up with Czech Republican team Technika Brno in April of this year. While it's difficult to locate year-wide stat summaries, his performances with Brno in the 2011 European Cup Qualifiers seem very strong. For example, in June he lasted the full nine innings against Bern Cardinals - allowing 4 hits, 5 walks, 0 runs, and notching up 11 Ks - in a mammoth 139 pitch performance. Then in September he went 7 innings, allowing 1 hit and 4 walks - contrasted against 10 Ks.

While there are definitely some gaps to fill in his backstory, it appears Chambers has been spending the ABL off season practicing his craft - and this has so far paid off, with drastic reductions in the number hits and walks allowed. While I greatly enjoy watching our classy imports, providing opportunities for young local players like Chambers to show their stuff is one of the primary purposes of the ABL. It's the young Aussies that will form the backbone of the team in years to come - so let's home Chambers can keep up the heat.